Hi Staranalyst,
I believe that 40% free carry would definitely be on the conservative end.
I think the deal would be based more on 50:50, although I can see that it may not be 50% free carry.
I can see that there could most likely be a debt scenario where the JV partner would be the lender (or act as the collateral for the lending).
Don't be surprised to see that the possible JV could be "pay $XXX" for 50% of the project and fund the development through debt which is split into "50:50".
Either way you are right that until a sealed JV is delivered its difficult to guess the value.
I would not place too much on NKP on trading at 30c immediately today. Possibly high teens and maybe low 20s. However if the Joint Venture becomes really imminent then I can the share price firming up towards your 50c range (I do think this is the low end to be conservative).
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