Hi Bilbo35 I hear what you're thinking - but look at the numbers...

Hi Bilbo35

I hear what you're thinking - but look at the numbers and motives here. The underlying strategy here is that Zijin dont want a large share in this project, they want to take it private. On that basis - to achieve compulsary acquisition, they will need 90% of the shares. They wont be able to get that without all the Top 20 agreeing and a large number of Significant Minorities. On my calcs, they wont get it.

The only way is to first deal with G and offer them what G can afford to take - remembering their private commitments are a burden to them and they will still retain 26% at project level. After that, even if Z were to offer the minorities a higher price, the overall price they would pay to take this private will be significantly less than their previous offer of 50cps. I'm not going to put my sensitivity calcs here - but if you model it up, Z can still pay up to 50cps even on a fully diluted basis (after dealing with G separately).

The question for everyone is a bit like the Prisoners Dilemna - who will move at what price not knowing what the other is gonna do until they've done it. It's then up to Z - too low - they are just wasting time. But they know what their upper limit is based on previous economics - it's not hard for them to move.

The first issue for Z to deal with is G.

All this is IMHO.