During a period of very strong pgm prices and other successful pgm floats it is a valid question to ask why the Q4 listings have not progressed.
Also of interest is even though a Tubatse resource upgrade is coming why has drilling has stopped?
Both of these could well be linked. Drilling has probably stopped due to lack of capital. So why has capital not been raised or is not being progressed by means of one of these listings? To my mind if a JV were progressing it would still be prudent to raise capital and keep momentum on the Tubatse drilling program. However raising such capital would dilute Genorah's holdings and perhaps this holds the key. Why would Genorah not want to be diluted at this point in time? The only reason I can come up with is if a price is being negotiated for the whole shop then it affects the slice of the pie being received.
I for one don't believe that management are as poor as some suggest. For one they have kept the sp relatively stable by providing retail shareholders hanging on to the any day now story during a period of difficult negotiations. This has enabled them to raise capital at decent prices when they perhaps needed to show X they can stay the course of negotiations. Secondly they have already fought hammer and nail for the resource they are sitting on and won. Communication is poor but I feel that it is by design rather than by nature.
Drilling continuing on Tubatse plus resource upgrades being release to my mind would point to a JV progressing.
Delaying information, taking up options on farms that will be utilized well well into the future, not progressing with listings on other exchanges, effectively mothballing a drilling program is not the actions of a company that is in a hurry to complete the Tubatse BFS within 18 months. It leads me to think we are probably waiting on the final jigsaw pieces to be put into place prior to the inevitable.
This is a resource worthy of a major. It is the sort of resource majors want full control of. It has already attracted one major in Xstrata. Other majors and the Chinese have no doubt approached Nkwe (Impala's recent actions leads me to believe they have certainly looked it over with a fine tooth-comb).
Ironically if i'm right I believe PL is probably one of the best people to assist in negotiations on our and Genorah's behalf. He is a game player - we are in a game of high stakes poker - Nkwe hold all the cards and probably won't fold on a big boy bluff.
Each stock is unique. With this one I hold and wait. I don't look at charts. I will let the game unfold. Happy to take it on the chin if i'm wrong.
"In order to enhance equity capital market support from Asian economies, Asia
being one of the world�s fastest-growing regions for PGM demand, Nkwe has
appointed Helmsec to assist with a dual listing of the Company on the Hong Kong
Stock Exchange (HKEx) during Q42010 in conjunction with the Company�s planned
listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
The HKEx is the second-largest stock exchange in Asia, by market capitalisation
(ranking behind the Tokyo Stock Exchange). The HKEx is regarded as one of the
most diversified institutional and retail trading markets in the world, with 42% of
trading being conducted by investors domiciled outside China and Hong Kong.
HKEx recently announced significant initiatives to attract new HKEx listings by
foreign companies. Total market capitalisation of natural resources companies on
the HKEx has grown more than 30 times over the past decade to approximately
$341 billion.
The Board of Nkwe believe that a dual listing on the HKEx will provide Nkwe with
higher levels of shareholder liquidity and increased exposure to Asian capital
markets and strategic partners looking to access physical PGM metals."
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