NML 0.00% 1.9¢ navarre minerals limited

I think you've hit the nail on the head F. Unfortunately diluted...

  1. 6,134 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2845
    I think you've hit the nail on the head F. Unfortunately diluted and disgruntled shareholders on this are out of patience...
    Personally I'm happy with 340,750 units at 8.1c average.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3874/3874293-35416b3c481d879a306e483d990dd7eb.jpg
    Personally, If the NML liquidity and volumes improves I will add more. The holding takes up more than 10% of the daily liquidity already, per orange circle below. So I'm staring at a sizing issue if I add more. This is not testing my patience this is testing my discipline if anything... Whenever this shows 7c I feel like I need to walk away and have a smoko to prevent myself from buying more.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3874/3874351-eed792598782d0171c38f46fb2f970ad.jpg
    Anyway fundamentally we know how solid this is. The growth runway for a cashflow positive miner cannot be understated on this. It opens a lot of doors in terms of growth avenues moving forward...
    - It can now finance Vic goldfields organically or via debt at better terms than when it did not have cashflow.
    - More importantly, as an EVN long timer I know how under invested EVN was in Mt Carlton as it had it eyes on other assets. It doesn't help that Jake Klein's mantra is margins over ounces either. I mean look at the drilling expenditure over the years. That blowout in FY21 has a lot to do with Crush creek and infill drills to get around the main ore shoot forking out.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3874/3874436-683442d2864587ef5d62105ab7fff4a6.jpg
    And is further explained here..
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3874/3874503-d65e531901e3c7019dc74c0dd31ae460.jpg

    So to conclude. NML, AIS, RMS are good examples of recurring business situations and patterns of behaviour where the market habitually under-prices stocks. We know that is the case over the years on those 2 later stocks at least. There are further examples I can add here... PNR with Norseman, RED with KOTH, EVN with Cowal, NST with Jundee, SAR with Carose/Thunderbox etc.. they all have fallen victim to this recurring business situations and patterns of behaviour upon an acquisition of an asset and pre-cashflow positivity. Our main job as investors is not to look at the SP daily. Our main task is finding mispriced stocks and to identify those companies where we are seemingly able to predict future business outcomes better than others in the market. Those that can identify it in NML at this point, regardless of the current sentiment discounting and execution risk moving forward, have their foot in the door and will be sitting pretty, when the guaranteed FOMO mania ensues as NML delivers and de-risk moving forward.
    Last edited by Exised: 08/12/21
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add NML (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.