no bargin today ..., page-41

Folks,

Even though 2012 earnings is expected to be poor at around 70 to 80 cents per share, remember from 1st Jan 2013 we are in another year with a clean slate.

So with hardening of premiums for east coat US due to Sandy and severe drought for crop insurance, we should be seeing good organic growth in premiums offsetting reductions in the force placed insurance due to regulators and a better economy.

I suspect the Aust business is roaring and delivering 17-18% insurance margins.

IN THIS CASE, THE STRONG AUD IS DOING US A FAVOUR AS IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE US POSITION FOR EARNINGS WILL BE DEFICIT THUS REDUCING ITS IMPACT IN AUD.

With El Nino looking likely this summer, we shouldn't expect any major flood / storm events.

If No major issues the last 6 weeks of this year and a good start in jan/feb in Aust, this will set up qbe for a great year and major earnings upside.