no better time to buy?, page-9

I posted this on the GOLD thread but it is a question that is very pertinent to an investment in ABU;

Is gold in a bubble?
A poster quoted John Nadler re gold ATM's in China being a failure. I think he was inferring gold is obviously not a good investment.

My reply;

"China’s first gold-vending machine had its plug unceremoniously pulled by the Beijing Agricultural Commercial Bank which noted that its customers have “lost their appetite for gold.” At the same time, China has also suspended plans to install other such ATMs across the country. Oops. "

Hi Skoll,

That sounds like very clear evidence that gold is not even close to bubble territory.

I am known amongst my relatives, friends and neighbours as a stock market investor, but never heard much talk about the market for decades other than, "how is the market going", once in a while or "can you actually make a living doing that?".

Starting a few years before the market topped, some people started getting interested in the market and asking me for advice and or tips. Maybe one every six months as a rough idea.
My usual advice was be very careful.
Around 6-12 months before the market peaked I started getting one request, then another, and then another about "what stock should I buy".
Towards the top of the market it got towards a snowball effect. I was getting very regular enquiries. In the end the most unlikely of people were asking. First my next door neighbour who had never participated in the market, but he was young so not that unusual. Then a few weeks later his father (in his late 60's) who also never had bought a stock before. Then my Uncle, similar age and lack of experience.
Then my Uncles daughter- never had any experience.
The list went on. I could not go to a party without being hounded for info on the market all night long. Not just people I knew, but plenty that I had just met that asked what I did for a living. As soon as I said investing in the market, they would not talk about anything else.
My wife got really sick of people asking me at every social occasion.
The real shocker was my Uncles other daughter. She was having financial problems for quite a while but had managed to put together all her savings at the time; $5,000 and she came to me to ask what she should buy with it.

Then the market collapsed.
It should not have been a surprise as I had heard the story that when the taxi driver is giving you tips (or asking what to buy) it's time to run for the exits. I will remember that lesson.

If these ATM's are a failure, I will take that as a good sign that we are nowhere near bubble territory.
In case you are wondering about my friends and neighbours, not a single one of them, and I mean not one has asked me about gold or gold stocks as an investment. They all got burned and have no interest in anything but cash or real estate. Some of them continue to invest in the market and ask me what I am buying and I mention that I only buy gold stocks these days, but I never get enquiries at parties about gold or gold stocks. If anyone asks what I do for a living now, I still tell them and the usual response is "Oh" or "are you making any money in it" or "how did you fare in the crash" and that's about it. Never should I buy some gold or which gold stocks are you buying.
When I get the first 2 or 3 from unlikely people, I might start thinking the top may be within a few years.

On a different level, the question I like to ask is this;
Considering POG peaked in 1980 at just over $800, and then soon after settled at a rough average price of $400 for a few years; what other asset do you know that has only gone up by a factor of 4 from the $400 base or just 2 from its last peak over thirty years ago? How can any intelligent argument be made that gold is in a bubble considering the price inflation over the last 30 years? Ask yourself by what factor has realestate risen, or the price of a car or oil or electricity? Nothing that I can think of other than gold has risen by a factor of only 4 (or two from its peak) over that long a time period.