Danhold,
We do know that the Adani royalty is more that just $2 per ton.
It is $2 per tonne of coal produced for the first
20 years of mine operation and this $2 is linked to Australian CPI (adjusted from when the deal was signed). It seems simple to me and if there was more to it than that I'm sure further details would be disclosed.
Nobody can be certain how much production will be generated over 20 years and when production will begin, but Adani is targeting first coal output by the end of 2014 and production of 50 million tons to 60 million tonnes by 2022. It's in their interest to produce as much as possible and as soon as possible, so Adani's interests are aligned with Linc's. More importantly Adani have the capacity to undertake this project, and Linc didn't. So it's a win-win situation.
Few things in business are certain. If we could all predict future cashflows of all businesses then investing would be very easy and we'd all have nothing to discuss in these forums.
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