It now appears both the rally and the sell off were driven on dividend speculation. While everyone knew it was going to be a terrible result, AWC do have a reputation for high dividend payout (ref their last div with high debt and the pour price of Al). I see this dropping back into the 60's tomorrow and - on no news - staying there.
On capital raising, though it doesn't appear a short term I note net debt rose from $472mm to $602mm. I presume this is to do with Maaden, but reading the accounts is a job for the weekend.
Further risk that I didn't see mentioned anywhere was the provision Aloca made to AWAC on the lawsuit....Unless I missed it? I assume - on the basis of no news - that the discussion went badly for Alumina. I need to understand what that would mean and when.....
That all said and done, I'm back to buying once it gets in the 60's. At the end of the day, these assets are not worth less than book.
AWC Price at posting:
72.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
