Absolutely - unless you know how to time it. (I certainly...

Absolutely - unless you know how to time it. (I certainly don't).

Of course, from that point of view, I should have listened to Cramer over the last 6 months. The fact is - had I listened to him, I would have made heaps.

I'm not saying another full deflationary leg is on the cards for certain as ctindale is committed to. My general position is long term inflationary because:

1) production will continue to decline.
2) base money lent out by the fed is increasing and they won't stop doing that while credit generally is contracting.
3) the existence of a greater base will serve as the bottom of a greater current multiple that will ultimately chase after a much reduced manufacturing base.

But this can possibly take time. there may well be a number of strong deflationary legs ahead of us. The longer the deflation lasts for - the greater the inflationary bounce will be at the end.

But it's very hard to claim that we've hit that final inflationary leg of this super-cycle given the current state of the bond-market.