no deal yet for centro, page-24

The debt was due yesterday. We don't actually know what time and this is complicated further by having lenders both here, in Europe and in the US. Did it fall due at 9:00m our time, midday our time, midday NY time, midnight our time or midnight NY time? I doubt we will ever really know.

We have also 'assumed' that the negotiations are still continuing.. because the media said so. Which has led us to conclude that this is going down to the wire and everything has been left to the last minute.

Remember that every single piece of information you and I have received since the AGM has come to us through the media. All the company has said is that there will be an announcement by Wednesday.

Every media article seems to just recycle what a previous media commentator has said. As this cycles, people are sucked in to believing it becomes more and more acceptable, which of course it doesn't because the original sources could have been flawed.

You might want to have a look at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_cascade

Of course one explanation is that they have been working on this for a full 12 months and the deal was substantially complete. The trading halt could simply be due to the multiple parties involved, paperwork complexity or to protect the company being buffeted by unnecessary media speculation.

We'll know the facts soon enough I guess.