"I can't help but wonder, if the upcoming dividend holds up, how...

"I can't help but wonder, if the upcoming dividend holds up, how that might change current sentiment, with or without a merger?"

Dusnot,

I think there is precious little chance of the dividend being maintained.

The uncomfortably high levels of debt, combined with upcoming calls on capital to fund deferred consideration payments related to acquisitions made in the past, means that the balance sheet will continue to deteriorate.

For at current dividend levels (of some $40m pa, combined with capex and acquisition of intangibles of collectively around $16m pa, deferred consideration payments of $15m pa... all compared with Operating Cash Flow of around $60mpa) the company would need to be increasing borrowings to pay unchanged dividends.

To repair the balance sheet, a cut in dividends is a minimum requirement.

But even if the board was bold (reckless?) enough to maintain dividends, I don't believe this would alter sentiment towards the stock in the least. (In fact, I think the market would be smart enough to see the perils inherent in being stubborn with the dividend, and would punish the stock price even further for it.)