I'm not going to try and tell you or anyone else what the eventual outcome will be for Pathfinder or Birch in terms of BOPD. All I will say is dispite the delays and some frustration I believe strongly the 500 squared program targets will be met and exceeded within the 6 month time frame. You may well ask what I base this optimism on, I look at the track record of the managers who are running the company, they are in my opinion highly qualified and world class, take a look for yourself.
Eagles not long ago put some reasons up as to why he felt the company were waiting for IP flows before making any ANN. I agree with his take on the situation.
I also point you to the AKK ANN 15/10/12 Investor Presentation. There is a Comparison of Austin Exploration's Pathfinder well to Averages of Niobrara in the DJ Basin. Please take a look at the data recorded on this page, Pathfinder is according to the data provided superior in all respects and remember this was analyzed by an independant company and Austin Exploration.
It gives an example of Northern DJ IP of BOPD (400). Even if we obtain the same IP rate for Pathfinder there is your 400 barrels in one hit.
It also goes on to say at the bottom of the page, Pathfinder has an excellent correlation with EOG's Jake and Noble's Gemini wells based on data obtained from logs and cutting analysis.
AKK has said the figures you have used in your post are from very early in the recovery phase and will not reflect the eventual IP rates for these wells.
My faith may be misplaced or plain wrong, all I can say is I have an order in for more stock and I'm not planning to sell any time soon.
Hope you don't mind me jumping in Sector Lead, felt compelled to respond......penrice.
Can't wait for the news!!
AKK Price at posting:
2.1¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
