Apples, Basically, no one can be sure that a debt for equity swap will occur & on what terms. But if your were the bank you would be seeking conversion of debt at about the current price the deal is struck. Let us assume it is 10 cents, then a $1 billion debt swap, converts to 10 billion shares on top of current issued script. This may help save the company but greatly reduces upside of shares. Try dividing NTA by 10.84 billion bits of paper. The shares effectively fell from low 20's to current price, because company made mention of the possibility of seeking such a possible arrangement. This one announcement drove many investors out of CNP, because they didn't want to be involved in a company with potentially billions of pieces of paper on issue. If CNP gets a simple 2 year debt extension at say current interest rates or lower then they have done a great deal & there is plenty of upside for existing shareholders. I would sooner sell out of CNP just prior to any refinancing deal & possibly buy back after the deal is known i.e. reduce my risk. Even if CNP does strike a simple extension the shares will only bounce a little, & it would be better to pay a little more to gain certainty particularly when you are dealing in bigger quantities. Small holdings may not be worth the exercise of coming out i.e selling & re entering after a refinancing announcement. Regards Buffett PS Please do your own research on CNP as it is a highly speculative share.
CNP Price at posting:
7.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
