The important thing, imo, is that these offshore capital cycles...

The important thing, imo, is that these offshore capital cycles are multi-year and are based on multi decade demand/supply forecasts – this is just a function of the very large upfront cost. Last cycle offshore was one of the most expensive extraction methods this cycle it is only beaten by Middle East onshore production. This is largely due to advances in technology. We are still at the beginning of the cycle I believe. The day rates on drillships are still not high enough to encourage new ship builds (there is a whole other story there). I guess that would be the first sign of the "end of the beginning" of the cycle.