You have nailed it Dex imo! when a leader loses the confidence of a clear majority of the Party room that signals the potential for a move. There is no indication of that happening with Turnbull. Other than a few odd-balls the MPs are firmly with Turnbull imo!
Shorten left Abbott in his wake for preferred PM and when an Opposition leader is well ahead of a sitting PM that signals that there is clearly something rotten in the State of Denmark or you could say “Houston we have a problem” lol!
Besides focus groups as per the OP indicate that the leader is not the issue on which they would base their vote.
cheers
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