Ben.
I don't believe the situation is as dire as you suggest.
No commercial oil?
Noone except the drill bit can know that for sure.
As for Ophir walking, unfortunately the Senegal Government holds all the cards and they are controlling everyone and not the other way round.
IMO, Ophir relinquishing their option was simply a matter of running out of time.
A decision had to be made and it was not going to be whilst the extension was yet to be formalised.
Force the Government to hurry up?
Errm, I don't think so.
Gottajustwait...
no ophir, page-24
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