Well Ladies and Gentleman what a cracking start to 2023 it has been for Lake Resources (If you stand on your head upside down looking at the chart that is).
In light of
@Sanar5 here is my Top5 Predictions that will transpire for Lake in 2023 (In my opinion only, this is not financial advice)
1) The DFS delayed again - The Long awaited DFS which has been touted by Management Past & Present will be delayed again. I don't expect we will see the DFS until Q4 2023 at the earliest, perhaps even early 2024 given the current market climate
2) A CAPEX Blowout - Following recent feasibility studies in this inflationary environment from VUL & QPM, I expect the 2020 Capex of US$544m to get blown out of the water. If Lake were to produce a similar 25ktpa DFS today, I wouldn't be surprised to see a US$1B+ CAPEX. If Lake do indeed produce a 50ktpa "Base Case" DFS, expect the CAPEX to balloon to +US$1.5B
3) The Timeline is out of whack - It should be abundantly clear to all by now that the Timeline Steve & Stu sent out in April 2022 had 0 chance of ever being achieved, it was unrealistic before it even hit the printers. IMO given that the approval pathway in Catamarca on its own is a +12 month process + Feed Study + EPCM + Finance + Construction + Commissioning etc That 1st Production providing that everything in the world goes right from here, wont be until 2027..... If Ever
4) 50ktpa a Pipedream, Learn to Walk 1st - As the title suggests you have to learn before you can run and a start-up Jnr like Lake Resources is no different. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the new Management Team come out at some stage in 2023 and state that the Project will now be staged given Capex + Risk + Extraction Water Volumes or a combination of all 3
5) ESG "Benefits" under the microscope - Lake has long positioned itself as having superior ESG Benefits over evaporation ponds given two main criteria; 1 is a reduction in water usage and the 2nd is a decrease in the surface area disturbance. When the company finally comes clean and releases the DFS / ESIA to the Market and commences its community meetings in Catamarca, these ESG "Benefits" will be hung out to dry IMO
Firstly, we have detailed over the past few weeks that given Lakes Extremely Low Grade Resource, in order to produce 50ktpa LCE, Lake would need to extract + re-inject over 55GL/pa which is just a crazy amount of water being mobilised and then re-injected in a yet to be named location. Lake has yet to commence its long term well pumping test and/or finalise its hydrogeological aquifer model, it is crazy to think a company has already told the market it will produce at a 50ktpa run rate when they are yet to complete the baseline technical work to determine if it is even feasible
Secondly, Given that Lake is going to need to extract +55GL/pa of brine to reach its pie in the sky run rate, the company is going to need to install a crazy number of extraction and re-injection pumping wells at Kachi, turning the site into a swiss cheese block, of which the number of wells, piping, roads etc has a fairly large disturbance footprint in itself
But that is enough for me today, my Top5 could easily be a Top20 given the current status of the Project and the various Baseline works that still need to be completed for a Project that was suppose to be in Construction Last year and sits in the ASX200........ For Now Anyway
IMO DYOR
