you might get a decline in IR's in 6 to 9 months if the non-mining economy and housing turnover keep heading in the same direction. A decrease in housing turnover = decrease in spending, construction and monies associated with real estate, which makes up much more of GDP than mininig. Couple in the high AUD effects on tourism and manufacturing and it's easy to see why rates probably won't be going up any time soon.
Personally i don't think rates will rise for quite some time, as i believe the RBA and govt is overestimating the multiplier from mining investment. You only need to look at the cost blowout of WPL's project to the tune of almost a billion dollars as evidence. It gives the project an IRR of about 10%, probably the lowest of any sizeable LNG investment in the world as far as i know.
However, just because rates are on hold it doesn't all of a sudden make RP a good investment.
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- no rate rises for at least 6-9 months
no rate rises for at least 6-9 months, page-3
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