AI Overview
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Yes, droughts in Southern Australia are worsening. Several factors, including declining rainfall, the increased frequency of high-pressure systems, and the impacts of climate change, are contributing to more frequent and longer-lasting drought events, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Here's a more detailed look:
1. Declining Rainfall:
Parts of Southern Australia have experienced persistent low rainfall, leading to rainfall deficiencies, especially in regions with western-facing coastlines.
Since early 2023, rainfall deficiencies have been observed in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania.
The south-east of South Australia has been particularly affected, with significant rainfall deficiencies.
2. Increased High-Pressure Systems:
Increased frequency and persistence of high-pressure systems over Southern Australia are pushing rain-bearing cold fronts further south, resulting in fewer rain events.
This is particularly problematic for areas near the southern coastline, which rely on low-front combinations for their cool-season rainfall.
3. Climate Change Impacts:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that rising global temperatures due to burning fossil fuels will lead to drier conditions in Southern Australia.
Some researchers, like Matt Grant at the University of New South Wales, have found a trend of increasing drought months per year in parts of South Australia.
Victoria and South Australia have already experienced severe drought conditions, with parts of Victoria receiving some of the lowest rainfall on record.
4. Impact on Agriculture:
The drought is having a cascading impact on Victorian agriculture, including reduced water supplies and increased pressure on farmers.
Farmers in South Australia and Victoria are facing urgent challenges, with some pleading for help due to empty dams and barren paddocks.
The ongoing drought conditions are also taking a significant mental toll on farmers, with mental health services reporting increased demand.
5. Historical Context:
While some compare the current drought to the Millennium Drought (2001-2009), researchers at UniSA highlight that the situation is currently "doing it pretty hard at the moment" and that more policy and infrastructure decisions are needed to address it.
Research at UniSA indicates that more of South Australia is becoming drought-prone, with the number of months spent in drought increasing.
