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Hey Dochico,It doesn’t follow the Beer-Lambert law. That’s the...

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Quatrojos

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18/09/24

09:44

Post #: 75720687
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Originally posted by Dochico: ↑

Hi Q,
when you talk about logarithmic absorption rates, I assume you are referring to the Beer-Lambert law. Which was formulated about 300 years ago and so included in all of the models. Do you think all those supercomputers are crunching a linear model? Where did you get that impression.

Anyway, you are missing most of the story about the effect of CO2 - We are not concerned only with day side heating, but with the night side trapping of heat that would normally have been re-radiated from the Earth's surface - your figures don't consider that as well as other effects. The additional trapping also happens on the day side.

You absolutely can't ignore what happens on the night side.

The effect of clouds on the system is important, but the chaotic nature of clouds only really effect short time predictions. Sure, if you want to complain that a model incorrectly predicts global temperature for a month, you can point to clouds.

But if you are making a decade- or century-long prediction, then a long-term average of cloud cover becomes pretty accurate - one of those situations where the longer the time frame your prediction is, the less important the uncertainty in cloud cover becomes.

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Hey Dochico,

It doesn’t follow the Beer-Lambert law. That’s the point, actually. It’s a base 2 log, meaning that for every doubling of [CO2], you should get 2.2W/m/m.
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