Seasonal patterns do not have to play out every season. We have extreme positioning in both precious metals and bond prices suggesting we are near lows in both markets.
The market is still undecided whether we have entered the "new age" (time after the financial crisis where you have rising inflation and interest rates) or are still stuck in the somewhat deflationary environment. In the new age we will see declining bonds and sharply rising precious metal prices.
If 10 year bond rates go lower from here we will be stuck in the old age for several more years. Moderately higher bond prices and precious metal prices, they had a very strong correlation over the last years.
Positioning and market action suggest the second scenario. Maybe the prick will be Trump leaving office as it will be very hard for him now to cover up a big lie without admitting a small lie during any investigation.
Time to be 100% in safe investments. Does not need to be Troy but any other gold stock, cash or bonds of short to medium duration.
TRY Price at posting:
12.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
