Investors views on this topic are controversial at this stage, split views about RAP uncertainty includes CR, further BOD playdown, and SP dip. Can we discuss two things first to see how the manipulator P and BOD wants to see the No-Vote afterlife?
1 What is the value of Covid screen tool and RAP in Pfizer's eye?
As the public opinion directly from Pfizer is missing, we have to start the analysis from their continuous action. Firstly it is wrong to assume Pfizer values RAP as 11.5c, 14.6c or 20.7c, the offer stands for the residual value subtracted the anticipated licence deal value from their total precepted value. In other words, if Pfizer think RAP worth $1billion, and they can get $800m from signing exclusive licence in total, their offer will be capped at $200m.
Pfizer would have carefully calculated the way we don't get to know. The estimated annual profit could reach $1billion, takes 10% loyalty from that, they have to pay RAP SH $100m each year. This gives you a rough idea why they offered $100m to buy out the company. If the BOD is super rough and refused chance of exclusive licence deal, Pfizer might just walked away, or bid $300m+ for a simple T/O. By spending $3m they are guaranteed to have the exclusive licence benefit, there's no need to pay more than marginal money, to have more control over the company, and maximize their benefit. Our BOD has spoiled Pfizer to be a tight ass all way long. To draw some conclusion on RAP's Covid Screen value in terms of Pfizer, it's worth $127m at the moment, and will at least double when double blinded US trial is successful. The ultimate value at commercial stage is as BL says, put 1 in front of dollar sign.
2 What are the best interests for BOD at different stage?
Normally BOD's best interest is to have support from SH to recognize their effort and achievement. Board members have a substantial holding of company share, and should encourage positive news and SP rise. However it's the opposite now, ignore SH interest, helped to restrain company outlook and keep an blind eye on elements to cap SP(no conference call for algo tweak). In my other post I explained they have bigger interest with Pfizer and just cannot care less.
Things will change without a blink of eye, when the No-vote is a done deal, BOD will move to next stage with Pfizer - as explained in point 1, they will both work towards how Pfizer can make the best out of Covid tool licence through approval to commercialization. Understandably Pfizer will release them from promoting the low ball offer and free of capping the SP, there's no need to play down the company. High SP benefit both of their substantial holding, we will get progress about algo tweak, US trial and licence deal. Time to get SH support again, mark my words they can change face easily as they did.
3 SP movement
For people worry about no vote result can cause a sellout and SP crash, think about this
- why so many unconfident seller exit have not made the SP back down?
- people who bought at 13c, are they really believing T/O is done deal that 10% is on the card or they are aiming for big?
- if no vote happened, will the next couple of anns be positive or negative, thus SP shall go up or down?
These questions can be answered by how you judge the relationship of Pfizer and his RAP involvement. If you think the same as I think that Pfizer is not here to waste time and money, you will find out the answer yourself.
Let's quote
@Taurean7 $1.76 as the progressive value. The majority of that, around $1.10 comes from successful Covid screen approval and commercialisation, so maximum value of DX and sleep check FDA is $0.6 when commercialized. We can also use $0.208 as a fair value(IER has taken negative readout info into consideration). This gives us a price range based on DX and sleepcheck progress, and don't forget Pfizer is better than us for kicking BOD's ass if they dare to fluff around Covid screen tool.
Happy to meet a lot of you in the vote meeting next month.
All IMO
