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Lethalba

844 Posts.

20/07/24

23:58

Post #: 74843548
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Originally posted by pintohoo: ↑

it’s not about sensitivity, it’s about clarity

who are you calling BOM?

On tariffs, did you view the book interview of Jeff Rubin which has been going around lately about his book ‘ A map of the new normal’?

He spoke about the tariffs in the USA, and sanctions etc.

What Trump does won’t necessarily be easily predictable and the effects of what he does won’t be all that easily predictable either, I suggest.

And for somewhere like Australia - I suggest that it’s impossible to predict how it will affect Oz short or long term.

It’s all too easy to say - oh, if he does this - then this and that will happen.
It might - but once one puts in a few policy changes - they interplay with each other and I defy anyone to predict the outcome precisely.

Look at just a few things with Trump

after chatting late one night with one of his security people (from memory) he gets the idea that a lower US dollar is a good idea.
He still seems to think that.

But, he says that he is going to put across the board 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.

Now - that should dampen demand for Chinese made, it should raise the prices of imported goods
and it will probably stir up US manufacturing and maybe bring in more Mexican goods.

Overall it could be expected to be inflationary.

So, what then? Well the federal reserve will probably raise interest rates

if it doesn’t - inflation will probably get away.

If Trump dumps the Reserve and doesn’t raise rates - it will get away.

But if rates rise - so too should the dollar

the thing he doesn’t want.

God knows how the mix of all of that affects Oz.

My guess is that if Trump does all he says. - my guess is that he’ll lose control. Why?

Because he pulls levers to respond to what he sees in front of him.

But the levers he pulls have effects a long time after he pulls them and they all have a cascade of intervention.

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Device is buggered (you never sent the child around to help me). But BOM is bad orange man or “Donald.”

Will complete post when you send the child around to guide me.
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Device is buggered (you never sent the child around to help me)....

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Device is buggered (you never sent the child around to help me)....

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