Hi all, although there appears to be intense interest internationally in Sundance, I still believe China will prevail in a bidding war.
It would appear the Noble raising of $20M is to make allowance for China’s mega-bid for Sundance (probably initially via an indirect takeover of 100% of the assets) and then a full blown corporate transaction sometime next year. On the other hand, The investor syndicate raising seems like a claytons raising.
I conservatively estimate the bid to be around $4.5B for 100% of the Mlabam-Nabeba asset.
Due to the significant sum which is consistent with China’s valuation of high-cost magnetite Tonkolili in Sierra Leone at $6B and China’s 45% ownership of mega-Capex Simandou that may never produce anything values at $2.2B, I would expect the NDRC and the CDB to take some time (more theatrics than anything) to complete the approval. FIRB should be no problems.
SDL Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
