So who is closer to the mark?Did Ophir say >50% and Noble now...

So who is closer to the mark?

Did Ophir say >50% and Noble now says 20% chance of success at Kora as below.

This may be their real estimate or it could be like the companies bidding for Bakken and Niobrara shale acres in the USA, they understate their potential while they try to snap up more leases in the area.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Noble Energy Inc, the world's second-largest offshore rig contractor, said Wednesday it has joined a group looking for oil and natural gas off the coast of West Africa.

The group, which includes Ophir AGC Profond and Rocksource AGC Prodond AS, will first drill in the Kora prospect, about 65 miles off the Senegal and Guinea-Bissau coasts.

The group will drill in about 8,600 feet of water. The Kora prospect is estimated to have 450 million barrels of oil equivalent, Noble said.

Offshore West Africa has been one of the hottest areas for oil and natural gas exploration in recent years. Energy companies are spending heavily to tap reservoirs there.

Noble said the chance of success in the Kora prospect is 20 percent.

Shares of Houston-based Noble closed Tuesday at $87.38. The stock has traded between $59.22 and $98.99 in the past 52 weeks.