noble says 20% success at kora??, page-3

http://www.rocksource.com/getfile.php/Filer/Rocksource_Q2_2010_Presentation_financials.pdf

Page 11:

Kora - Prospect description
? Trap type: Structural 4 way closure
? Reservoir: Coniacian - Aptian
? Seal: Upper Cretaceous and Tertiary shales
? Source: Primary source is Albian shales

Pre DHI - Volume range (MMboe)
Based on maximum structural spill
? P10: 203, P50: 538, P90: 1625, Mean 798

Initial risk evaluation:
? Trap: 100 %
? Reservoir: 60 %
? Seal: 60 %
? Source /Migration 50 %
Probability of Geological Success (Pg) = 18 %

Page 12:

Key risk
? Source/migration and Seal
Key volume uncertainties
? Heavy oil or biogenic gas
Geological Probability, Pg: 18%

DHI uplift
?Seismic data
? Encouraging but not used to decrease risk
CSEM data
? Positive & used to update COS
Revised volume range (MMboe):
P10: 117, P50: 317, P90: 860, Mean: 448

Chance of Success, CoS: 55%
(Up-lifted risk post-CSEM)


Noble may be referring to the geological success rate?