ARU (ASX) Nolans could be uneconomic as it is a heavy debt not free gift

Originally posted by chokdee: ↑

I give a thumb there Amit however the next few years will present huge gains so whilst interested in next few days it's the $3 level I've mentioned previously here I seek to sell some at.
We saw what the impact of Gina's arrival and duly reflected in large SP gains late 2022 through to early 2023 - The Australian Gov support is SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER than Gina's arrival all be it having her HP on board was critical and is very important and anticipate further equity will arrive from HP when required - when the final SPP/CR arrives hopefully back around 60c levels - also with 2 board departures over the past 13 months a vacant seat could well be filled by a HP representative.

Anyway traders are in for a kill and SP will experience some wild swings as some cash in and shorts escape. Speaking of 115mill held prior to this ann - ironically 114 mill traded yesterday - how much the short position changed we'll know in next few days - I'll take a stab and say around35% fall thus leaving shorts with a hefty 70 million remaining (not to say they will evaporate completely perhaps remain a 2-3% hold). Each to their own and many traders will dump being "happy Friday" and more will arrive today seeing huge upside in coming months with more significant announcements arriving soon.
For many been around a while - after 20+ years this is not the time to be selling and most share a similar position to myself and look forward to Nolan's being commissioned and ramping to full scale in next 4 years and even beyond that - growth is a given from current production guidance along with the farm in option involving the very high grade mineral sands RE deal from I forgotten their name - anyway the facility to be built in Darwin to produce the concentrate for ARU to have rights on PrNd content to refine and watch for future years of refining capacity and those concentrate producers shipping to China refiners that will supply to ARU - of course incentivised again by OZ gov to do such - very low opportunities exist for OZ concentrate suppler's to recieve any gov assistance - it's all about refining capacity here in Australia hence ARU lucrative gov package that now guarantees Nolan's development - not without challenges of course - only need to look at Lynas massive challenges but for which they overcame and ARU of course far better positioned.

Anyway congrats to the ARU team/management for pulling this off. Congrats to shareholders many whom could see more the additional 4 billion in critical minerals development heading to ARU - happened quite quickly which again one could suggest the gov rolled the red carpet for ARU and said how much will make this happen - and of course congrats to the NT and all stakeholders.

Now I just hope management release the remaining debt funding one by one to really keep the SP on a roll -
1. Export Development Bank Canada - up to USD300 million.
2. Commercial Bank Tranch - up to USD175 million.
3. Kexim (Korean Export/import bank) - up to USD 75 million.
4. Hyundai? negotiating for quiet some time.
5. Kexim financial arm in Singapore? mentioned previously.
6. Europeans - well they're so slow to every party and we don't need them although the untied loan guarantees of up to USD175 million great and Kexim also has the same facility of USD75 million untied loan guarantees.

Do the maths people - gov and ARU management know exactly. The 200 million facility provided for ramp production to scale is an absolute master stroke by all parties - it is critical for ARU success to hit maximum targeted production levels asap and importantly to keep that 15% for spot market which could actually be greater now with this gov financial package - this is exceptional financing to accommodate such. Instead of dilution and raising capital to do such - yeah we take on more debt but at a time we are proven producers and supplying our customers and as Twiggy did - made a mockery of debt concerns. Of course we don't know full terms but there would be facilities tied to various loans to execute new terms on several - particularly the big OZ gov ones.
Just as we don't know full off takes at present - terms - floors and caps on pricing etc - most will be revealed in time - I say most as some offtakers are concerned re current China supply be constrained however most are revealed - very, very big global names in Hyundai/Kia - GE - Siemens Gamesa Renewables - will POSCO join that list? JAPAN? US/EU BIG AUTO as advised.

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Theres a large risk that Gina is here to nick it for next to nothing.

It's not like she doesn't have form.. aka Atlas iron, liontown etc..

all imho

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0.160	1506230	22
0.165	1524668	42
0.170	1097306	22
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(20min delay)
Last 15.5¢		Change -0.005(3.13%)		Mkt cap ! $371.8M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
15.5¢	16.0¢	15.5¢	$273.9K	1.759M

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