Well about 1 - 6 weeks to go is my best guess.......that's not me answering a question, just musing to myself and now I've bothered you with it!!.
The past 12 months seem to be another lesson in how to mis-manage expectations. I think just to prove mis-management of expectations is not only the domain of speculative small cap companies.
You know what I mean......run hard on the announcement of all the things we are going to do, but then nothing happens and any further information falls into some sought of 'bermuda triangle'.
Well, the NRF has been a bit like that. You could be forgiven for thinking it was all set to go and should have been dishing out cash ages back.
But ....'No'!!!.
In 2023-24 the Budget papers explicitly talked about 'establishing the NRF', to administer a $15B fund will be over 7 years, with the NRF itself legislated into being 4 months later. The NRF was legislated as the mechanism / structure of people (ie: Board, CEO and staff) to administer $15B and in so doing make enough profit to sustain itself over the journey.
As overhyped and poorly managed the expectations have been, the NRF does now have a board, a CEO, and staff. It is now producing and signing mandates and policies, with still more work to come.
It turns out two important legislative things needed to happen so that NRF can start making decisions and the Minister some announcements.
Firstly (and I personally wasn't aware of this early on) -
the 'Future Made in Australia Act.
Many of you would have heard about this recently across all forms of media. So, what does this legislation do? In our Treasurers own words it does this:
"
The Future Made in Australia Act will establish and impose very strict policy frameworks and institutional arrangements to ensure our priorities are rigorously determined and robustly implemented, focussed on where we have genuine economic advantages and compelling national security imperatives."
Secondly, the Appropriations Bill for the 2024-25 (budget).
We are all familiar with the $15B. You could be forgiven for thinking that was already legislated. That promised $15B is in the forward estimates. The Appropriations Bill need to be passed by Parliament for the Government to be able to spend the next tranche of that $15B.
There will be a further portion of the $15B in this appropriation bill. Colloquially, this is where the 'rubber hits the road'.
Again, in the Treasurers own words late last week -
"
The Budget will have a heavy emphasis on attracting and deploying private capital......Our work will be responsible and methodical and guided by where we can be more competitive, where it contributes to an orderly path to net zero, where it builds the capabilities of our people and regions, where it makes us more secure, and where it boosts the private sector and delivers value for money.This means there are important opportunities in areas like refining and processing critical minerals, moving up the value chain of battery production, renewable hydrogen, and green metals."
These two pieces of legislation will be passed almost in unison. This is due to occur in just over 2 weeks (13 May).
So, how do these pieces all come together to complete the puzzle? In my shorthand, a bit like this:
- Future Made in Australia Act - sets the legislative framework for what Government can and can't invest in (the 'why', 'what' and 'where').
- Appropriations Bill - provides the money this year to distribute. (the 'means')
- NRF - legislated (last year) the BRF is the 'mechanism' (organisation and people) to administer the money in a manner consistent with the Future Made in Australia Act. (this is the 'how').
So, why the next 1 - 6 weeks?Because I am assuming a few things.
1. That the budget (Government) will announce some of the industries and organisations they intend to fund. In the Treasurers own words: The May Budget will include significant new public investments, but our aim is to incentivise the private sector, not replace it." 2. The NRF has been up and running for a while now. The Board has met 6 times, it has been open and receiving applications for many months now, that will have been assessed and are ready to be announced.3. The Future Made In Australia Act will be adopted alongside the budget to provide the necessary legislation / authority of how and where the money can be spent.If those assumptions are correct and now just 12 months from the next election, I just don't see any other legislative, structural, funding or political hurdles.
So, I could
maybe imagine some pre-emptive announcements prior to the budget (1-2 weeks), but
definitely imagine a number of announcement once the money is in the bank post the budget (2-6 weeks).
But it could be just that....my imagination!!
As I stated......the above is some musing about what I think, some of it I know, but some of it I am taking an experienced guess at.
If it's close to right, what does this mean for ADO?....maybe nothing, or maybe something.....but my judgement is that either way we will know relatively soon.
Lest We Forget.
EB
BTW - My opinion only....never make a judgement based on anything I say!!! ...
