Hi DRbrooks
Its 27 pages and I only have it in PDF format so heres the front page A new analyst has got into it and done a reasonable job....but still a tad conservative in my opinion. But that's alright. I expect him to raise his valuations as he becomes more comfortable with the model and management.
One of the points that I found conservative is that he estimates only $15.2m of Revenue from the US in FY17.
Unique process provides competitive advantage
nearmap ltd (nearmap) has developed a unique process for imagery capturing, processing and publishing which is much cheaper, quicker and provides better quality than traditional processes. In our view this process provides nearmap with a sustainable competitive advantage over the medium term which will enable it to generate strong earnings growth over this period.
Significant operating leverage
nearmap has a largely fixed cost base in Australia so there is significant operating leverage in the business. This is highlighted by the increase in the EBITDA margin from 9.6% in FY13 to 28.5% in FY14 which was largely driven by a 57% increase in revenue. We forecast a modest dip in the EBITDA margin in FY15 (due to start-up losses in the US) but then forecast strong increases in both FY16 and FY17.
Strong Balance Sheet
nearmap has a strong Balance Sheet with c.$23m cash and no debt. The company also has relatively high unearned income of c.$13m given the subscription nature of its services and this provides visibility for future revenue. And the level of intangibles is relatively low at c.$5m which mostly represents capitalised development costs and these are amortised.
Investment view: Initiate with BUY, PT $0.90
We initiate coverage of nearmap with a BUY rating and a 12 month price target of $0.90. The price target is generated from a blend of three valuation methodologies we apply to the company: PE ratio, EV/EBITDA and DCF. The price target is a 28% premium to the current share price of $0.705 and the total expected return is the same given there is no forecast dividend in FY15.
FY15e: Rev = $27m, NPAT = $5.3m
FY16e: Rev = $41m, NPAT = $9.0m
FYe Rev = $61m, NPAT = 14m, EPS = 4.0c DPS = 2.0c!!
He was quite lucky to be able to put out the report with yesterdays close as the 'Buy' price.
Cheers,
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