I think you mentioned that presentation last year and I had a look at it. It was a good presentation.
If OZL did buy NP - there would still be some risk to the buy. Think IGO and Jaguar and Newcrest and Lihir. Both bought producing mines and found some problems. But compared to buying a reserve and building a mine, the risk is much much less.
I certainly think that NP beats Hillside. The risk is much less, capex appears to be much less and cash flow occurs much sooner.
By doing a trade sale, OZL would not be paying a t/o premium.
I also think that RIO has spent close to $400m in capex recently on the mine.
If OZL bid for RIO's NP stake (and remember that Sumitomo probably has right of first refusal), then competition would probably come from China (think Minmetals).
I do not think TB will have it all his own way.!!!!
HT1
OZL Price at posting:
$4.75 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
