Thanks @mir911IMO that's a pretty conservative valuation, both...

Thanks @mir911

IMO that's a pretty conservative valuation, both risked and unrisked. But in reality all O&G companies suffer from the ‘pre-production discount’ and generally sit behind other companies with larger market capitalisations that are producing and have cashflow yet have smaller Reserves/Resources.

Hence why it is imperative for the likes of NWE (and STX etc) to move as quickly as possible to production and cashflow. 2025 can not come quick enough for NWE.

Which is why we see the larger predators (i.e. BPT, Mitsui etc.) looking to make VERY opportunistic acquisitions before a company re-rates - ala WGO for example.

Now, iIf we went off the example Iain provided yesterday... 250 TJ/d at 50% domgas (@A$7) and 50% LNG (@A$20 long term netback) equates to gross sales of >A$1.1 Bn p.a. (~21% equity share to NWE $230m p.a.). Now Barrenjoey have assumed the high case 375 TJ/d production... if that is achieved and assuming same numbers above gives $1.65bn p.a. sales... so approx $350m to NWE coffers.

Yes, NWE would have to fund it's share of capex for a $800m gas plant etc.... but reality is if a predator can take out NWE for a measly $500m... or 8c p/s... well that's a bargain (not for us shareholders though!) We need to ensure a t/o premium of many multiples... not one of 1x or 1.5x future projected annual cashflows.

I am still very uncomfortable with the premise that BPT (and potentially Mitsui) can use their "favourable" LNG export export exemption, to essentially bankroll their acquisitions in the PB. This is not a level playing field. We need MIN to come in a shake things up.

So I am thankful in many ways that MIN are our "protector"... for the time being... I just hope we can see a greater value uplift to our share price in the next 6-12 months. I think we will... I am betting we will.

FWIW my sort term SP target is 15c... which makes us a cool $1bn MC. LT my target is 30c...

GLTA