Price caps have secured approval today from the greens, so we're looking at a $12Gj cap on domgas right now and a reservation policy to be examined in detail for east coast supply, which IMO comes in by end of 2023. Flip side is that none of this has any impact on NWE as these conditions are equal to or above the current contract conditions in WA anyway. If anything, this will drive up contract costs in WA to parity with East coast and the price cap because the big players will look to WA supply to offset any risk or losses over east. If I'm a cheeky boy in Iain's position, I'm telling buyers that the price cap is in play due to the above, and that the best offsets come with owning NWE under these conditions. At those rates NWE gas is worth $7-8 Gj after well heads, COP and reduced rate of return offsets. That leaves corporate taxes, which can be offset by vertical integration. Either they can buy the company at $3.50 Gj and write their own contracts to offset the tax loading or pay retail. The bit of good news was that the Greens were able to be bought off with subsidies to switch gas heaters and cooktops to electric, which means gas baseload power will likely be unaffected on the demand side, especially in WA. We would be looking at a distribution rebalance for mine rather than a net loss, especially with offshore wind needing at least 20yrs to integrate, with conventional gas in the box seat. NWE wins again!
NWE Price at posting:
4.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held