not checkmate simply check...

Put it in the curry...

I can just imagine the wry smiles on their faces as they put this parsimonious little effort together…it borders on corporate robbery, stinks to high heaven and in the face of the so called “seeding” they kept feeding out parrot fashion to anyone who called, and in light of the poultry offer price…”significant premium of 13.5%” – rotflmao???…it should be abundantly clear to all and sundry now this group hold both non-affiliated shareholders and indeed the ASX in utter contempt.

Is this how they do business in India?

This will not get my vote…not even close…and I will do everything in my power to spread the word, although I suspect many other shareholders will hold similar views without too much prompting.

I am also thinking seriusly about increasing my voting powers via options exercise and further on-market buying…and I am not the only one I know with similar views.

The company is clearly aware of this potential backlash…which is obviously why in the lead-up they felt the need to shore up additional “votes” with that entirely unnecessary placement at 35c. At least this gives us an idea of what they feel is their shortfall in this regard however...and in light of this, it looks like just $5-10m worth of shares bought on market between now and vote time could well be enough to throw a spanner in the works here…perhaps in conjunction with an information campaign, it could ultimately prove the difference between 44 point nothing cents and a far more realistic offer price per share.

Even the JV “gifting” of Cethana to PLV is starting to smell like asset stripping…again I notice to related parties.

I wonder how ASIC will view these circumstances, especially the “seeding” process in the lead up to today’s announcement?

The composition of this offer is absolutely insulting in my view…their “significant premium”…lol…is based on the grand sum of $632 worth of stock bought at 59c in INR just 5 minutes before the close on Thursday…and if not for the window dressing that day to the tune of just $35k all up, which took the price from 54c to 59c, we would be looking at an offer for our GUJ shares of just 40.5c…or a “SIGNIFICANT PREMIUM” of a whopping 3.8% over the GUJ closing price.

This is a joke right?

I may do my sums more seriously on this over the weekend and try to determine the likely underlying vote situation…I suspect with the overlap of the parent company, co directors and other related parties who will be excluded from voting, that this farce is far from a done deal.

Frankly, I cannot believe the company would be so stupid as to assume such a embarrassing proposal would be genuinely accepted by shareholders, let alone gain independent sanction on a “fair and reasonable” basis…which is why I think they aren’t that stupid at all.

In my view, tonight’s disclosure is just “check” in our game of corporate chess…as such, we can expect to see a few more moves before we finally see "checkmate". I also suspect they will realise the game has a way to go, in light of which we should probably now turn our attentions to INR.

The only hope this has of success in my view, is with a much higher INR share price…and I am talking 80c+ here, or some 35% higher than the current price…an effort that frankly, I do not see as being all that difficult to achieve.

Why spend money effectively diluting your stock via a sexier offer (something like a 1:1 share swap minimum), when the same money spent pumping up INR instead will achieve the same result?

In this scenario, they spend relatively little money buying up INR on-market (especially in a stock which has traded just $2m or so since listing), and achieve for a fraction of the cost with limited dilution and indeed increased position in the final entity (and subsequent net worth increase), a far more attractive and cheaper version of the same basic outcome.

So...with INR at 80c…just 21c higher than their closing price on Thursday…GUJ is suddenly looking at a 60c effective takeover price…arguably a more reasonable result, but still not enough in my view.

In light of this we can possibly make several assumptions…

1. INR may well see a buy up, suggesting anything under about 70c is a good buy;

2. GUJ is potentially a screaming buy even above 44 POINT NOTHING cents (for me).

Given the obvious opposition GUJ will get from some shareholders here, I would not be surprised to see INR bought up significantly…lol, perhaps with the funds they took out of GUJ whilst holding it down? Subsequently, I would expect to see GUJ track higher in tandem with INR, in effect becoming a derivative trading instrument for INR going forward!

On a positive note, INR has been showing signs of a significant breakout of late, so perhaps on the back of this news, which in all reality will create a very attractive single entity with the all important critical mass I have previously mentioned, there is a very real possibility the market will warm to this deal via genuine on-market entry of both stocks…more likely through INR however. Further, INR will gain the corporate benefit of greater liquidity, greater scale and eventual inclusion in either/or the ASX300, or ASX200 indexes…certainly an attractive scenario for some sections of the market.

Bottom line for me however…at 44 POINT NOTHING cents this will not get my vote and I suspect many other votes…but if they play out the game to it’s natural conclusion as I expect they will, then they may well gain my support at a later date with the effective buy price closer to 70c.

They also better hope Cethana doesn’t hit pay-dirt…or they will really have trouble.

Anyway, I certainly will not be selling my heads at 44c, nor my oppies at 24c any time soon…and in fact may even buy more with the view to holding out until just before the votes are cast, with the expectation they will pump the INR interest, as a result of which the takeover price will eventually need to track much higher!

Not happy…but not entirely stupid either, in spite of what management obviously thinks!

Cheers!