Per the way the stock is trading investors are speculating MME is brushing against its covenants or is about to go under. After taking a close look, I don't think this is happening. The stock price has 0 impact on the leverage, and they have debt providers lining up to participate. The recent very high quality debt securitization says alot and no one extends more debt to a troubled business.
MME pre Merger Opex was ~ 40 M ( I need to see the numbers post the integration) and I estimate them to be making ~ 7% gross profit on the portfolio (after finance cost and NPLs). The portfolio is 1.3Billion heading to 1.6 now with the added firepower.
Remember that one problem here is as they are growing they need to take a non cash NPL statutory hit to the P&L. When they stop growing, After Tax profits (which are reported as CF now) are going to be explosive.
They are transferring rates increase to the clients, and the main risk is a significant deterioration in Portfolio quality, likely in a very severe Recession bordering Depression. If this is not going to happen, I think they are trading at less than 5 times EPS 2023 (without growth).
I think they are one of the best in the sector and I do think that smaller companies, pre inflection (size of port vs fixed costs) are going to fold here.
I guess they are coming out winners, and the stock goes 10X from the very recent lows of 0.555$, in which I have added. The 20% up explosive reaction tells you the story.
This founder built this business @ 500K $ budget. The Horizon platform is likely a massive competitive advantage. Watch how low the Opex are in comparison to other Fintech companies.
Risky, but interesting.
MME Price at posting:
69.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
