Not good odds

Odds of success say, 25% .........

If successful the shares will probably settle @ $1.00 - $1.10 depending on how much success is already factored in.

If unsuccessful, that'll be 2 dusters in a row and one could argue that HDR will drop to the 30c - 40c range.

So you have a better than 3 in 4 chance of losing 50% of your money, but a 1 in 4 chance of gaining say 30%.

Not good odds.