Just logged on to check on EMH. As per my last post, the bearish sentiment is now settling in based on the inflation, recessionary pressures and subdued demand for the lithium derivatives.
DFS has not been released (3 weeks left in Q4) - as was expected. DRA and EMH/CEZ are in a bad spot right now, they have to agree on both the OPEX/CAPEX, which is hard as the inflation is rampant, as well as the LOM product pricing for the next 25 years, which is also hard as the lithium derivatives are in downward freefall.
My prediction #1 is that DFS will be released before Christmas/first week of January, however it will not bring material positive impact to the project, unless it is not delivered on a very conservative basis (which will step away from the conservative methodology applied to the PFS update released in Jan 2023).
My prediction #2 is that we will see the SP languish at .4XX level within the next 2-3 months if the DFS, Offtakes and FID timelines slip.
Geomet should be really careful and fight against the 'sky is falling' narrative around the lithium pricing and reduced demand, they should continue to reiterate the message of: "long term demand forecast is really strong and supply is limited to the EV growth projection models". If they mismanage those communications and FID is not in Cinovec's favor - that is it, gameover.
See you after the holidays my fellow long term risk takers, EMH is starting to look risk heavy, and the upcoming news are binary in outcomes - not good.
GLTAH.
(20min delay)