I do not understand everyones concern that capex maybe higher than the PFS . A whisper I have already heard is $850 mil , we can all work that out since the last 2 years or so the cost of steel has nearly doubled and other inflationary measures will have increased the cost , etc . Personally my forecast has been $1 billion for a long time . And certainly a number to remember more easily .
I can only assume the cost of capex is a concern for its dilutionary effect of a capex fund raise will have on EMH's registry ?
To put it into pespective , KC had been claiming all along there would be a 60 / 40 split loan to equity . More recently he updated this figure in any discussions to 70/ 30 as he has furthered negotiations with the 2 big Euro banks , whom one of just recently taken a share of EMH itself . ie the ERBD . Apparently these two banks including EIB dont work on dollar figures , rather they lend by percentage of need of total dollars . Their rules are EIB 50% and ERBD 50% of that roughly . So in a sense what ever the capex will be , we are essentially covered for 70 to 75 percent of lets say $1 bil . So CEZ and EMH will need to find $250 Mil . Given we already have $50 mil from the Just fund I believe we will only need to find $200 mil .
It would not surprise that there will be other free Euro grants and some prepaid offtakes that the JV would only need to find $100 mil ie $50 mil each and a slight chance of less than that . At one dollar Aud we would dilute by 75 million shares and at $10 we would dilute 7.5 million shares , so pick a number , either way total outstanding shares will be somewhere between 230 and 280 odd millions shares for a 60,000 tonne production of hydroxide facility . Not a bad outcome either way . If we accept Joe Lowry's forcast of $100 k a tonne as norm there will be very many happy days in the sun . At out latest updated PFS sell price of $17 k a tonne and even at $10 k a tonne cost Geomet will make $420 mil a year , converted for our share and AUD , would be at worst $1 Aud income per share and a $1.40 at best using above numbers . Tack on a 5 to 10 Price earnings is still a very healthy share price down the track .
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I do not understand everyones concern that capex maybe higher...
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Last
17.5¢ |
Change
0.005(2.94%) |
Mkt cap ! $36.30M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
17.0¢ | 18.0¢ | 17.0¢ | $12.19K | 69.15K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 255762 | 17.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
18.0¢ | 38000 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 196940 | 0.170 |
1 | 100000 | 0.165 |
1 | 10000 | 0.160 |
1 | 100000 | 0.155 |
1 | 100000 | 0.120 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.180 | 38000 | 2 |
0.190 | 14668 | 3 |
0.200 | 666 | 1 |
0.210 | 20000 | 1 |
0.220 | 16000 | 3 |
Last trade - 15.53pm 23/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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