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Not Gunna Be Enough Lithium, page-2054

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tsibis

3,681 Posts.

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08/01/24

12:57

Post #: 71774669
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Originally posted by Chuxa: ↑

"If we accept Joe Lowry's forcast of $100 k a tonne as norm there will be very many happy days in the sun . At out latest updated PFS sell price of $17 k a tonne and even at $10 k a tonne cost Geomet will make $420 mil a year , converted for our share and AUD , would be at worst $1 Aud income per share and a $1.40 at best using above numbers."

Fingers, instead of just throwing numbers around, it is best to present your methodology as to how you derived those results. Market is certainly not sharing your consensus of EMH generating $1 per share in income a year - that claim is so out of touch with reality that you are either:

a. delusional, or
b. in such advanced state of grievance over losses that your only defence mechanism is to disassociate from reality and increase your bullish predictions even more! (hint: wishing something to happen will do nothing for it to actually happen).

Also anyone who takes Joes figures seriously of 100k for the LCE pricing...like cmon, all the dirt cheap miners will come up just like they did in 2021-2022 to make absolute killing and flood the supply at those prices, these are the basics of supply demand economics - lithium is not very rare, there are plenty of opportunities to produce enough of it. Those Chinese or Zimbabwe producers are not going away anytime soon. Refineries/auto industry etc etc will not be able to sustainably operate with those prices anyways.

Structural deficit arguments around lithium supply were so popular back in 2021/2022, people really passionately believed that prices would just keep rising some even predicting ~$150k in 2024/2025. When presented with facts about major additional supply coming from Africa and China those facts were dismissed as some sort of anti-lithium propaganda, well...we now have had prices retrace -85% and counting, most producers are desperate to even maintain our current levels, let alone speak of x10. I agree with @zendada that it seems that we are close to the bottom of the trough, however, I think there is still a bit more pain left in store for the Li industry.

End of the day the Market will always self balance, those high prices are entirely unsustainable and will be met with fierce oversupply/absolute flood of material if it happens again (only the high prices period will be much shorter as the mines to provide that additional supply have been constructed and are now available for a quick ramp-up at a short notice). Commoddity cycles 101, Li is not different from anything else out there.

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My advice is don't rush averaging down. 20c is not far.

EMH Price at posting: 35.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 17.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $36.30M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	5313	17.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
19.0¢	18756	4

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	5313	0.175
4	255762	0.170
5	200000	0.165
1	10000	0.160
1	100000	0.155

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.190	14668	3
0.200	666	1
0.210	20000	1
0.220	16000	3
0.225	7500	1

Last trade - 10.01am 24/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

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Not Gunna Be Enough Lithium, page-2054

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