Geez Chuxa what are you going to post next, Youtube videos of EVs exploding en masse?
The Market Index story you've "based your analysis on" is already being debunked over in the PLS thread.
The below is from poster Cosmoterious
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/71751430/singleYou can see the error already:
At the time of that article, the price of spodumene concentrate was around US$1,400-US$1,800 a metric tonne depending on which data provider you were looking at. Kerry noted core produced at around $1,225 (should have qualified this as AUD, a person who didn't read it carefully would conclude its USD in line with what has been written in this whole paragraph) a metric tonne in the September quarter.Spodumene concentrate prices are now around US$950-US$1,000 a metric tonne. The maths speaks for itself. (If you’re looking for daily lithium prices and charts,I post these daily on X / Twitter!).
Its Not the maths. I am thinking why would someone leave that out for clarification but subsequently used it to compare it to US$950-US$1000 Lol END COPIED POST
You also recently posted
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/71574421/single Macquarie Commodities Strategy team’s latest lithium outlook used by the same Market Index journalist Carl Capolingua in this FUD article
https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/bad-news-asx-lithium-bulls-this-broker-sees-surplus-for-several-years
Macquarie Commodity Strategy team Spodumene, 6% Li2O, US$/t (left) and 99.5% Li2CO3, battery grade, US$/t (right) old and new price outlook. Source: Macquarie Strategy, Macquarie Research, Dec 2023
But does this predict your sky is falling analysis of 30% price decrease from the $17k used in the 2022 PFS?
No. It actually predicts about $25k or better in the years we will be mining. That almost 50% better! So really you should be saying most likely scenario is the 30% price increase or better if you believe Carl Capolinguas analysis.... but only if you want to present a balanced approach instead of cherry picking numbers!
So why does your "analysis" focus on this unlikely scenario that you actually have no evidence for?
Do you have any evidence that Capex and Opex are going to be 30% worse?
How do you know they won't be say 10% better or more?
Going deeper, the article that's mostly about CXO, that you "base your analysis on" has used "Production Costs" but the comparison has also been shown as blatantly wrong here as different companies use different metrics for production costs so it's not comparing apples to apples either.
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/71751352/singleFurthermore CXO is a spod producer already in production whereas EMH
will be a carbonate or hydroxide producer remember. So not apples with apples in that respect either. A quick glace at the graphs above (if you trust them) shows that even Macquarie predicts the carbonate price to be less volatile than spod which bodes well for EMH and makes your sky is falling analysis even more unbalanced.
Also consider that the big issue the CRMA is designed to address is less reliance on China so why worry about their current spot price which has already been shown to be manipulated by China anyway. Our partner wants to make batteries locally remember so really who gives a f*ck about China spot prices lol
Now if I was less trusting I might wonder what you are up to and if you forgot to change your disclosure to Not Held since I'm pretty sure you've told us your average purchase price was around the current SP.
Did you sell out.... and if you haven't why are you spreading FUD?
(20min delay)