I also have my gripes with KC, but I really don’t think that he has any direct influence on the timing or content of the DFS. So here is my take on the possible factors affecting the timing.
1) Things are as stated, the DFS is delivered in Q1. Outcome could be make or break.
2) There is a further delay, things are quite legitimately taking longer than anticipated.
3) The DFS is largely complete, but is not as ‘bankable’ as they would like for a FID, so are awaiting recovery in the Li price, offtake, news, EU grants or similar so that the conclusions can be positively ‘tweaked’.
4) The DFS parameters have been changed. Previously there were two streams of work, the main one keeping to original production estimates, and a supplementary one modelling a doubling (or more) of production. So have they done what we all thought would have been sensible in the first place and merged the two streams into one, modelling both options?
There is a fifth possible reason - that it is being delayed by a plot to buy out EMH, but I personally see this as a conspiracy theory spawned by the lack of updates. It may well yet happen, I just can’t see it as a reason for delaying the eDFS.
I have had to manage risk by selling around two thirds of my oversized holding, but am staying in until the DFS finally lands. I believe that there will be a significant rerate on even average news, but that if it is reason 4) above we could see something approaching the highs of long ago.
Each to their own, these are my personal thoughts. But until doubts over the feasibility of the project are allayed by even the most modest of DFS outcomes, we are likely to continue to see the market pricing our shares accordingly. GLA!
EMH Price at posting:
28.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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