What are the chances springsure won't go ahead? I am thinking...

What are the chances springsure won't go ahead? I am thinking around 20%, which still makes it a pretty risk investment because a non approval verdict would put bnd back down to 10c. Seems there is a pretty vocal farming lobby, who are against the mine but from an economic only perspective it is pretty hard to match the revenue gained from farming against a mine of this size.