"Did Colinchi actually say EVs will "never take off"?"
Perhaps I took the liberty of paraphrasing comments like...
"I am suggesting EVs will not be very popular." "I think there will always be ICE vehicles." "not a downgrade that an EV would be" "The downgrade is in performance" "But to pay a premium on something that is so inferior is a joke." "EV producers are pinning there hopes on governments to force consumers to buy what they don't want." "If EVs were ever to get a real foothold it would still come at a premium and the less that premium the lower the price of Spod. I think lithium is a loose loose commodity."
"So why do you think the bullish forecasts into the future will be any more accurate? A lot of forecasts are based on assumptions that have yet to be proven or come to fruition. So believe forecasts at your own peril."
Because the s-curve of disruptive technology adoption is starting to take shape, and when we combine history with the trajectories of key cost elements and technological advancement related to batteries and EVs, there is no reasonable case, imo, for this s-curve to suddenly stall or change substantially. There may be a blip or three (like we are seeing now), but the broader trend is forming. Approaching tipping points for various markets further strengthens the bullish case, dramatically.
"I see EV growth growing at a pace that the lithium supply side can keep pace with."
Well, this is essentially unavoidable since it's a bit tricky to sell EVs without batteries. The point is, however, IMO a surge in demand will put massive pressure on supply, forcing (enabling) more mines into production (that are uneconomical at current prices) and therefore Li prices MUST increase in order to attempt to meet this rapid demand growth. The current pricing is unsustainable because new mines cannot operate profitably at these levels, and therefore we would have to settle for selling 2m EVs per year into the foreseeable future - which is clearly NOT going to happen! Do you think that all operators are going to be able to push their costs down to become "highly profitable" at current prices? Of course not. It is a temporary blip in a much broader picture. We are likely to need somewhere near 10 times as much battery quality supply within a decade! Call it 5x if you like, doesn't matter. Prices simply have to rise to enable new entrants to profitably feed into this demand. 106 battery megafactories will be calling on Li supply. Current producers cannot simply expand this much and keep others out of the market. Colin tells us that EV prices cannot reduce if Li prices rise. This has been shown to be nonsense because even a doubling of Li prices only sees a sub-thousand $ impact on EV cost, which is more than offset by continual reduction of other cost elements (I have even shown previously how declining battery pack costs would offset this doubling in less than 1 year).
It will all play out, and we will all watch on as it unfolds. This doesn't guarantee that buying GXY shares today will make anyone a profit tomorrow or next week, but that is also why this isn't in the day trading forum. Everything points to very exciting times ahead imo!
