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Forge -- (FGE)--

Hi guys,

In response to Sauces thought-lines and queries re Forge (FGE)I would respond;--- as Personal View Points only-- . as follows.

(1) No Stock can be owned and valued, (for a bet on what value (which is essentially--. PERCEPTION..-- the Market will ascribe to it)-- imo-- outside an appreciation of overall secular Market Sentiment.

And specifically;-- in relation to whether a Bear market exists or a Bull market condition exists..

(2) So.. (given it much safer to Call it now as a Bear market Condition )-- specifically for Forge then (FGE) we might askwhat PE/Price Multiple would Forge Trade on in a Bear market??

(3) Would it be a forward PE of say 9-to 10 (which is a Bearish PE number)- if Forge (FGE) make official their stated earnings guidance of $12 Millions NPAT. for the half. ?

(3) It is also definitely worth, imoremembering; that in a Bear market;--- Investors do go shorter in their Positions; (as a general rule)-- rather than longerso if I was accumulating say $300, 000 of Forge stock at these current prices at say an average of -- $2.17 would I take a 20% profit margin Off the Table ie: $60, 000?

I am just asking the question. which we need to ask;-- to take a holistic view.

(4) So Point (3) above;--- is not a call-- to say FGE is $2.60I am just stating the Facts, that Profit taking will need to be replaced by even Greater Accumulation. at the pending likely $2.60 ++ price levelsreturning (assuming stated guidance comes through etc etc).

(5) There is obviously a weakness in the amount of free float of FGE stock on the register.

One could however be a contrarian and askwhat if that Free Float were Blocked by a medium term Cornerstone Investor.?? This could do small wonders for the Forge (FGE) --PE multiple.

(6) As a psychological device, it is worth assessing the merits of Right Nowbeing Prepared mentally, imo-- for a period of say another:-- 2- 3 -4 weeks .of Calm Investors sniping the remaining low hanging fruit of sub FGE ----$2.25 stock .

Then,--- if a Price Break Out to the upside is sooner than that:--it is a Reverse psychology Bonus. But calmly come to terms for this 2-3-4 week wait as a possible eventuality. In the long haul2-3-4 weeksimo-- is not a long time.

(7) One upside possible near-term- Narrative for Stocks like Forge imois when the Market comes off the current superficial propaganda that China is going to cool her GDP growth.

Obviously Engineering stocks like Forge (FGE) are closely tied to the leverage they get off such overall secular sentiments.

Also they are tied somewhat tosentiment regarding;
Australian Infrastructure Growth meta News narrativeslike say the Gorgon Project, New or upgrading of Australian Mining Projects in arenas such as Rare Earths; Water De --Salination Projects, up grades to population Growth Projections for Australia with some now saying that Australia is headed for a relative population explosion, and when the :-- ChinaStronger for longer-- Story returnswith the Forges (FGE) of this world-- leveraged to all the large Global Mining Firms and also to the never ending relentless growth of Oil/Gas energy Sector

-- If that happensthen Forges (FGE)-- future share price will probably almost double inside 8 months. as there are imo--- four (4) major things implicit in the Forge (FGE) share price

(i) Making official the Forge (FGE) Forecast earnings.
(ii) Brokers coming to some Consensus on future growth looking out three (3) years plus beyond that in the areas in Australia that Forge (FGE) operates in.
(iii) A Cornerstone Investor or Two coming onto the Forge (FGE) register shoring up the Base Line Support Line priceand strengthening the implicit PE multiples the Forge (FGE) stock will trade at.
(iv) Overall Market Sentiment on the S& P 200 in Australia and the S & P 500 in the United States.

This will of course, imo-- effect PE multiples at which ALL stocks trade at across all sectors.

As an asidewhat is rather interesting to view, imo--- is when precisely-- Bradken Engineering(BKN)-- came out of their 52 week lowand how they fared in the eye of the Tornado of the heart of Fear in the Gloom and Doom in the last recent GFC.

From memory there were two midcap stocks to emerge the earliest out of the GFC Bear Market carnage last time.
They were Pacific Brands (PBG)-- and Bradken (BKN) Engineering (BKN).

So overall, while there is a heightened FEAR in the overall Market Forge stock price will possibly continue to offer low hanging fruit opportunities.

This imo will occur for about 2-3-4 weeks max. After that we are just getting too Close to Reporting Seasonfor this to likely to continue. barring of course; ..any Black Swan Events or Total market meltdowns or catastrophes.

At least the abovemight be One view; from the perspective of the herd. .Ahhhhhh the never ending Joy of the Stock market !!!
Cheers,
herd