At the moment the bid is with Saputo, and the WCB Board haven't given any indication that they want to recommend a higher bid from anyone else. I was interested to see that a farmer who holds 5% seems to favour Saputo as well. I'm not a farmer, and was trying to see things from a farmer's point of view so this was a bit of a revelation.
Nothing so far has gone to expectation, so trying to call it from here is very difficult.
Logically BGA will come in with another bid, supported by Fonterra.
Saputo will then try a knockout bid, and it would help them if they can get MG on side.
I think MG are in the weakest position, because they will have continuing problems with the ACCC (however misguided) and the alternate route just takes too long.
On the reservations about value, and ending in write offs, don't forget how we can all be seduced by 'new age thinking'. I remember when analysts were seriously suggesting that Amazon be valued at a multiple of revenues. Pots of gold in China for dairy farmers (which is why I bought BGA in the first place at 2.30) may have a long way to run before reckoning sets in.
btw I switched from BGA to WCB because I thought the latter was everyone's target. Wrong so far!
WCB Price at posting:
$8.36 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
