not selling...., page-17

End of week update..

Stock market:

Well everything continues to come off the boil . Dow down a few hundred points, ASX had a 80pt drop yesterday and well down for the week so far, recent rally looks to be breaking down fairly quick. This is only going to accelerate from here imo. But it won't be all down , the volatility is going to go through the roof. Keep an eye on the VIX index. It will continue to rise for the rest of this year i reckon and we'll see 100pt dow nights and big $30-$50 moves in the POG.

Gold:

Now that the markets are starting to realise the "paper recovery" has no foundations , the indices should continue to trend lower and gold may have found its bottom. $USD will be the winner in the short term which will pressure gold further for a while, but as $$ looks for protection against the next rounds of QE (which will come ) alot of that $$ should rotate back into gold , which is now percieved as being back in bargain territory .

I expect gold will rally fairly hard once it manages a close above 1400, but it will be a volatile climb back to 1500+ and may take some time. If gold can recover from this sell off and get back above 1500 , its really going to look stronger than ever imo, thats whats good about these deep corrections, they often are a setup for much larger moves higher.


USD$:

USD is looking very weak compared to the move in gold, it really hasn't done much at all and I suspect when gold rallies again , the USD will break down along side stock markets, pushing gold higher still. USDindex has failed at 83pts quite a few times now and looks ready to retrace. USD a crowded trade according to Jim Rogers.

Other commods:

Oil , copper and other base metals have made back little ground last night. Keep watching these ,especially copper, as they will lead the stock markets lower , especially the ASX . The trend is down for these commods and we may see the "goldilocks" environment for gold stocks , where other commods are falling and gold is rising. But we'll have to wait and see if this translates into lowering cash cost per/oz . Will take about a year for that to show up in quarterly reports I'd say (if it happens at all).

Sit tight on gold and AMX imo. Get what you can under 20c.

a good read here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10001937/Fed-and-Bank-of-Japan-caused-gold-crash.html