"i expect some 100+ down days on the dow this week. Gold is...

"i expect some 100+ down days on the dow this week. Gold is leading the way for everything to go lower imo ."
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Looks like I was being too optimistic about the dow . Try 260pts down.

My $0.02 :

This looks very bad imo.

The market:

Copper and Oil declines have me more concerned than gold at this point and are pointing to a massive slide in all markets. Gold in just a speculative rout , but other base metals and oil are pointing to something more sinister looming over the broader market and are declining on poor fundemental outlook for demand. Dow drop last night may be just the start. The "paper recovery" has no foundations and it won't take long to unwind. Commods sell-off is not saying recovery, its saying batton down the hatches.

ASX largely a commods drivin market will get smashed hardest of all imo. Perhaps a 100pts drop today??

So how to play all this ? :

Again , just my 2 cents.

Short the AUD as of yesterday and will be long gold again soon(ish) but not yet. Short aussies banks, they look toppish for sure.

Best trades will be short AUD,ASX and long USD for the next short while. Maybe defensive stocks like Telstra , but cash is king and bank interest is free $$$.

Ampella:

AMX not worth selling at this level for me , so holding firm and will try and grab some washout bargains if it hits my buy order....

AMX cash backing at 10c, so really not too much further it can fall without discounting the resource to a near zero value (which could happen ,but value investors won't keep leave at that level long)

Cash position is important:

AMX survived the GFC with only $4-6 million in the bank . They will be fairly comfortable with $25million from here and pulling back on spending until this rout is over is a good idea.

What can AMX do ? :

Focus should be solely on developing Konks from here , oxides or no oxides. Further exploration for oxides will likely cost another $20million in drilling , so no point spending $20million to save building the float regrind that will cost $20-$30million , just get it happening and stop this mucking around. Build the regrind out of early cash flow or forward sales , the high grade shallow ores should surely provide enough margin for this if the grades are above 2-3g/t as stated.

Time to get innovative AMX (with funding,mergers,deals etc..) , management and new board need to show leadership and determination to deliver this project and above all , they need to be realistic about their current situation.

For example , I'd like to see a stated contingency plan for if they don't find the oxides in a certain time frame or at all. What then ? whats the plan ? how will this mine get off the ground ? Market will reward AMX if they can pull their finger out devise a realistic plan or set of contingencies that are based in reality. Hoping to find more oxides is NOT a plan , its a wish , a hope , not a reality and may never eventuate. So what is the actual plan amx? based on what you have?

Perhaps someone could call AMX and ask what the contingency plan is ? would be interested to hear what they suggest...;)


Gold (and gold stocks):

Are setting up for a spectacular trade. I wouldn't be surprised to see some amazing volatility in gold for the next few weeks while the broader market sells off (with also great volatility).

Expect some $100 moves up and down in gold through this week and next week, but when the dust settles , I expect to see gold move much higher and correct sharply higher. The floor for gold may be $1200 , $1300 ?? who knows?.... but its in for a wild ride and has/will open up a bunch of opportunities to make $$.

i still think new highs in gold are still a possibility this year ( no , I havn't gone mad, just history repeating if you check the charts) At the least , I think gold could still finish the year higher if the broader market does what i think it will do.

A good strategy for AMX holders today would be to go fishing. Just do nothing and be patient. Wait for value to reemerge after this skirmish and don't add fuel to the fire today. Just relax and be patient imo