not so bad, page-5

I was surprised by the cashflow. At least some very superficial and simple numbers I did. (Obviously there is a lot of complexity in these numbers)

Net cash from operating activities: 54.6m
Net cash used in investing activities: -40m
Adjustments
Tassie closure payments: 32.1m (Note another $15m remediation expenses to go, not sure how spread out)
Sale of controlled entities: 0.8m
Sale of property plant and equipment etc: -5.7
Sale of investments: -4.9m

Total adjusted free cashflow: $36.9m *
Shares: 604m
FCFadj per share: 6cps - about 50% of SP

* I haven't had time to reconcile the underlying loss after tax of -$22.6m + D and A 25.7m = $3.1 adjusted profit (I accept adding back D and A is problematic - but not when the issue is survival).

There are obviously problems with PPX - but they are not looking to be going broke to me. Apparently within covenants - and no debt maturities until 2013 - jsut a step up in 2012 on PXUPA (may cost another $2.5m from cashflow in 2013 from memory - they can buy these back at 30c in the dollar ATM)

Shouldn't the shares be worth approx half of book value in the current climate. Equity $736m minus PXUPA $285m = $451 / 604m = 74cps
For me 37c target on very rough numbers.

I've been buying today at 11.5c - will see if I am silly soon enough.

Also I have a feeling that up until now there may have been some institutions selling on concerns that PPX will fall outside the allords. So this could zip on a change in opinion on this. Maybe PXUPA is another option

DYOR - don't rely on my superficial analysis

Any comment welcome