Great questions Aaremms, for me what appears to be developing is the discovery of a "world class" nickel deposit with substantial copper credits. Possible analogies include Voiseys bay in Canada. World Class deposits are few and far between and their value will always transend any GFC in the long run, with majors paying a premium to get their hands on the resource.
The trick with this story are the EM conductors, offen mythical beasts, just a figment of some geophysicists imagination. Fortunately these appear to be very real and each hole is confirming the reality. If all conductors turn out to be nickel sulphide deposits then we really are sitting on a world class beast.
With a market cap of over 400 mill, you are correct in that it now becomes a value proposition and back of envelope calculations are good guides here. Assuming conductor 1 only: Volume of ore = 1800x200x5 = 1800000 Tonnes = 1800000x3.5 = 6300000 Contained Ni = 6300000x0.03 = 189000 Contained Cu = 6300000x0.015 = 94500 In-ground value = 189000x16000+94500x7000 = 3685500000 SIR have only 70% = 2579850000
The big trick of course is how to relate in-ground value to share price value. Some are using a factor of 5% but my rule of thumb for world class discoveries in Kalgoorlie's back yard is to use 25%.
2579850000x.25 = 650 mill
Fully diluted SIR have 231 mill shares therefore share price =650/231 = 2.80
Still some way to go imo especially as conductor 1 continues down plunge beyond the 1800m detected so far, conductor 4 has not been drilled and SIR have yet to release any information on conductors 2 and 3.
Hope this helps a bit, but please make sure you do your own maths and make your own assumptions as mine are very rubbery.
SIR Price at posting:
$1.92 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
