Hi AgainI'm freed up at long last, with an opportunity to review...

Hi Again

I'm freed up at long last, with an opportunity to review proceedings....Yawn!

I am actually encouraged that Zzedzz cares as much as he does - So stay tuned buddy for what comes next. The company itself needs to capitalize on its 1 mill tonnes of copper, and it has a lot of ground to make up.

As I said, if anyone wants to make a move, it is best to do so while the price is cheap and the company is in disarray....or is it?.....lol

Maybe the company might start to make some moves of its own if the Azure exercise goes well.

Anyway, to throw a spanner into the works I have roughed out a different approach.

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SHARE VALUATION: Take 3

Dispensing with the consultants theoretical resource and focusing on the mining resource being developed by the company, and taking things a year at a time, the following snapshot emerges


YEAR 1.

Mining Costs: $3.40 per tonne
Processing Costs: $14.07 per tonne
Copper price: $AUS 8,000 per tonne
Borrowings: $150 mill
Throughput: 3 mt/annum
Grade: 4% Cu equiv
Amount of copper: 120,000 tonnes
Strip Ratio: 1.5 to 1

Waste Tonnage: 3 * 1.5 = 4.5 mt
Ore Tonnage: 3 mt
Total Mining Tonnage: => 3 mt + 4.5 mt = 7.5mt

REVENUE: 120,000 x $8,000 = $960,000,000
(We have heard of revenue numbers like this before in reports emanating from China)

COSTS:

- Mining Costs => 7.5 mt x $3.40 = $25,500,000
- Processing Costs => 3 mt x $14.07 = $42,210,000
- Admin Costs => $5 mill
- Interest: $20 mill (Principal repaid after 1 year)

Total Costs: $92,710,000

NET before Tax: $867,290,000

NET after Tax (30%) and Royalties (2.5%): $585,420,750

NET after Borrowings Repaid: $435,420,750

Earnings Year 1: $3.18 (Based on 137 mill shares)

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YEAR 2.

Mining Costs: $3.40 per tonne
Processing Costs: $14.07 per tonne
Copper price: $AUS 8,000 per tonne
Borrowings: Zero
Throughput: 3 mt/annum
Grade: 3% Cu equiv
Amount of copper: 90,000 tonnes
Strip Ratio: 1.5 to 1

Waste Tonnage: 3 * 1.5 = 4.5 mt
Ore Tonnage: 3 mt
Total Mining Tonnage: => 3 mt + 4.5 mt = 7.5mt

REVENUE: 90,000 x $8,000 = $720,000,000

COSTS:

- Mining Costs => 7.5 mt x $3.40 = $25,500,000
- Processing Costs => 3 mt x $14.07 = $42,210,000
- Admin Costs => $5 mill
- Interest: Zero

Total Costs: $72,710,000

NET before Tax: $867,290,000

NET after Tax (30%) and Royalties (2.5%): $436,920,750

Earnings Year 2: $3.19 (Based on 137 mill shares)

Cumulative Earnings: $6.37

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YEAR 3.

Mining Costs: $3.40 per tonne
Processing Costs: $14.07 per tonne
Copper price: $AUS 8,000 per tonne
Borrowings: Zero
Throughput: 3 mt/annum
Grade: 2% Cu equiv
Amount of copper: 60,000 tonnes
Strip Ratio: 2.0 to 1

Waste Tonnage: 3 * 2.0 = 6 mt
Ore Tonnage: 3 mt
Total Mining Tonnage: => 3 mt + 6 mt = 9 mt

REVENUE: 60,000 x $8,000 = $480,000,000

COSTS:

- Mining Costs => 9 mt x $3.40 = $30,600,000
- Processing Costs => 3 mt x $14.07 = $42,210,000
- Admin Costs => $5 mill
- Interest: Zero

Total Costs: $77,810,000

NET before Tax: $402,190,000

NET after Tax (30%) and Royalties (2.5%): $271,478,250

Earnings Year 3: $1.98 (Based on 137 mill shares)

Cumulative Earnings: $8.35

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After the third year I would expect the plant to be upgraded to say 5 mt pa as the grades fall back to between say 1% and 1.5% with very substantial earnings still maintained.

IMHO, no matter how you look at it, CDU are cheap at current prices.

Zzedzz

With reference to the register lists I put up earlier today, the Brispot Nominee holding appeared to morph into a Warbont Nominee holding, so who do you think that the Warbant holding will morph into, and when?

Cheers
Nev