i don't pretend to be an expert on DAP supply and demand but i do take notice of what the worlds largest fertiliser producer is suggesting,
http://www.potashcorp.com/investor_relations/markets_information/market_analysis_reports/
(the fertiliser link, p28-38)
it is from april but i'm not sure anything to dramatic has changes since then.
note on rp prices q3 2008 fob morocco 450 500, page-48
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